Toronto: Spring Real Estate Market

Nobody needs me to tell them that the Toronto real estate market is pretty hot these days. TREB recently released the February figures, which showed sales volume up 16% to 7,032 units sold; average price up 11% to $502,508; and number of listings available up 11% to 12,684. (You can read the full report here.)

I have been blogging for several years – and before that I produced a monthly e-newsletter. With the exception of about 6 months during the recession, my market updates seem to pretty much write themselves: market = up. Every so often I hear somebody say something along the lines of ‘what goes up, must come down’. There are many variations on the theme, but the point is that people wonder if and when Toronto’s strong real estate market will experience a major shift. Since I’m batting a thousand on my market predictions over the last 10 years I’m going to stick with my belief that our market will remain healthy for the foreseeable future.

We all know that the media (batting close to zero…) screams incessantly about the impending collapse of civilization – oops! – I mean the real estate market! From time to time they’ll cite one report or another proving that Canadian homes are drastically over-valued and that the end is nigh. To give Hallmark Realtors (and our clients) some valuable information and insight into what’s really what, RE/MAX Hallmark recently hosted an evening with TD Chief Economist Craig Alexander, in which he shared his views on the global economy, the Canadian markets, and what it all means to Toronto. He made a few key points that I would like to mention here. (Please refer to www.TD.com/Economics for a boatload of reports on pretty much everything under the sun.)

Firstly, at a global level, the European debt crisis is still a major concern, but it may be on the way to recovery. Of course, reports change from day to day, but if they continue to muddle forwards they’ll climb out of it after a couple of years of struggle. If that’s the case, a major threat to the Canadian economy will ease.

Secondly, and closer to home, the US economy is also still struggling, but seems to be finally picking up steam, with job creation showing strength in recent months. The US Fed has committed to keeping interest rates there at record lows until 2014 to spur further growth. That will keep Canadian interest rates relatively low, too. Both factors are positive for the Canadian economy and housing market.

Thirdly, regarding those reports about Canadian real estate, Mr Alexander made the point that some of those recent reports have been released by foreign organizations with little to no actual presence in Canada. On that basis alone, it should come as no surprise that they are a bit off in their analyses. In contrast to their ‘dire warnings’, TD’s forecast for the Canadian market is +/- 2%, or what Mr Alexander calls a flat market. There may be localized exceptions, but on the whole, things look pretty safe.

Finally, on the topic of the Toronto/GTA real estate market specifically, the audience was reminded of Toronto’s growing population, diverse economy, and general attractiveness as a place to live. Although you may not know this if you read the comments section of any major media outlet in this country people like Toronto, and love to live here! It’s an extremely important ‘destination’ city for people, businesses, culture, the arts, and more. Toronto should stand out as stronger on the price side of things. (As I always say, the national average doesn’t mean anything here. I believe that prices will stay strong [rising to flat] for the next year or two.)

Over-all, it was a great event. RE/MAX Hallmark really tries to stay on top of the market, and offers us agents top-notch information and insights from leading professionals. Frequently, those opportunities are available to my clients, too. Stay tuned for more!

Going back to the TREB numbers, I do sometimes get a bit uncomfortable with 10% year-over-year price increases. However, those spikes can sometimes be credited to seasonal or other factors; the full-year average is sometimes lower. The spring market is starting to generate more listings, which should help ease pressure on prices. If we can get a bit of momentum going, we’ll see higher sales volume, healthy prices – and lots of happy home owners! If you want to get into the market, call me today!

Toronto Real Estate Market Continues Strong Growth

TREB released its monthly Market Watch for January 2012 last week. It came as no surprise that the Toronto real estate market was once again up in price (by almost 9% on average). It was also up in volume (the number of sales was up 8.8%), a reflection of a little boost in the number of new listings and continued strong demand by buyers.

The biggest challenge we have faced in the Toronto market post-recession has been a lack of listings. Rising prices were supposed to encourage more homeowners to put their properties on the market, but we haven’t seen that, yet. So, any increase in the number of new listings is good news.  However, as I reported in December, the demand is still greater than the supply. Thus, although there were more new listings posted in January 2012 than in January 2011, the total number of listings available went down.  Also, reflecting the torrid pace set by buyers, the average number of days on market declined from 36 to 32.  So, in addition to selling for more money than last year, homes are also selling faster (which makes sense).

So, why is the media reporting today that the “Canadian real estate market’ (whatever that means) is “cooling“?  Maybe it has to do with the weighting of cities like Vancouver, but it’s certainly not a reflection of what is happening in Toronto. It does seem to have something to do with CREA’s comparison of January 2012 to December 2011 (for a month-over-month analysis). Go to their news page for more info. You’ll see this handy quote: “Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 4.0% above levels in January, 2011 and stood even with the 5 and 10 year averages for January sales.”  To me, that is a more relevant comment – up, not down; normal, not abnormal.

The Toronto real estate market moves in cycles within each year: busy spring, slower summer, busy fall, slower winter. These ups-and-downs should not be confused with over-all, year-over-year trends. The cycle is a reflection of peoples’ lives – for example, of wanting to buy or sell in time to close at the beginning or end of the school year, or not wanting to be on the market over the Christmas-New Year holidays.  Month-to-month variations occur, but are rather well understood.

This morning I attended a weekly meeting with a group of RE/MAX Hallmark agents. We all have buyers eagerly looking for homes to buy, which is a sign of a strong market for this year. However, we are also wary of prices spiking too much, which could negatively affect buyers’ ability to close on purchases. The market is ‘hot’, and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. That said, it’s important that you not get caught up in the moment. I’m not worried about a ‘bubble’. (I thought that we were past all of that mis-placed speculation!) I’m more concerned about the immediate impact on buyers, and the market, of lenders refusing to validate some of the prices we are seeing (when they appraise it for a mortgage). Know your valuations (I provide the background on that for each house on which my buyers want to offer) and the market; also, know your budget, and work within the boundaries. It may mean looking in a different neighbourhood, so keep an open mind!  ;)

Contact me for a copy of the latest Market Watch report from the Toronto Real Estate Board.  It included numerous breakdowns – by location, type, size, etc.

Fantastic Opportunity for RE/MAX Hallmark Clients to Learn about the Canadian Economy!

Wow – this is great! RE/MAX Hallmark is partnering with TD Canada Trust to bring our clients an Exclusive Economic Outlook event with Craig Alexander, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist, TD Canada Trust. Mr. Alexander is one of the foremost authorities on the Canadian economy, and is a fantastic speaker.  (I saw him at the RE/MAX annual convention a couple of weeks ago.)

The event will be held February 23rd, 2012 from 6:30pm to 8:00pm, and is available exclusively to RE/MAX Hallmark Clients. Whether you are buying or selling, starting your career or retiring, saving, investing, or simply trying to learn more about our economy and how it impacts your personal finance, this is an excellent opportunity to get an inside perspective.

Space is limited! If you would like to attend please contact me ASAP to make the arrangements.

Buying in a Sellers’ Market

So, you want to buy a house or condo in today’s sellers’ market?  With interest rates at record lows, and set to stay low for the next few years, the number of active buyers is going to stay high for some time.  In fact, I believe that a number of factors are setting the stage for an extremely busy real estate market in Toronto for 2012 and 2013: ongoing, if modest, economic growth (and yes, blips will appear); a slowly improving job market; those low rates; and – perhaps most importantly – receding fears of a major price correction.

Regular readers will know that I have always believed in the Toronto market.  It is completely different from other markets in Canada, so declines in the ‘national average price’ (whatever that is) mean next to nothing here.  Even during the recession, I urged buyers to act quickly to take advantage of the very brief lull.  Since the recovery, I have argued against the ‘bubble theory’.  Now, BMO has issued a report re-framing their minor concerns as a ‘balloon’ that may deflate slightly over time.  While caution is always warranted, I think that ‘head for the hills’ fear is behind us.  That is going to draw more buyers into the market.

For you first-time buyers (and those of you who haven’t done this in a while), there’s lots that you need to know – not just about the market, but about the process.  I provide all of my buyers with a comprehensive, custom Home Buyer Guide.  We’re not talking rocket science here, but almost every purchase or sale has something unique about it.  Knowing the basics will help you to prepare yourself for your experience.  The following is by no means a comprehensive list; rather, it’s sort of a “Top 5″ – or better yet, a “First 5″ things you should know (updated from a previous post):

· Be an educated Buyer. Learn as much as you can about the market before you buy.  I’m happy to take out all of my clients to start looking at houses early on in the process.  If you seriously want to buy, it’s never too soon to start getting educated about market conditions, what your money will get you, neighbourhood characteristics, etc.  On that note, be honest and open with your Realtor®!  I work for you and can best help you if I have a good understanding of your needs.  Once I know what you are looking for, my job is to be the objective guide in the process to ensure your needs and interests are met and protected.  (I.e. I’ll be better able to show you  houses that interest you.)

· Get pre-approved for your mortgage as soon as possible.  This helps you to determine your budget, and locks in today’s best rate for you.  I will help you connect with a mortgage professional if necessary.

· Act quickly!  If you want to see a listing call me right away and book an appointment.  Most well-marketed houses and condos will sell within a week or two, so there most often won’t be time to dilly-dally.

· Accept that it’s a ‘seller’s market’ and act accordingly.  That means be prepared to make an offer on Offer Day (financing lined up, home inspection report in hand).  Chances are there will be competition on most well priced, well prepared listings this year.  We’ll look at comparable sales and determine a reasonable valuation for the house/condo.  The rest is left somewhat to ‘fate’, and will depend upon your desires vis-a-vis other bidders, but if you do your best you have a decent chance of success.  (This is a complicated topic, and we will spend plenty of time talking about it throughout your search.)

· Plan to stay in your home a minimum of two years to ‘break even’, five years to build a decent amount of equity.  This may require sitting down with a partner to plot out a viable plan – just to make sure that the move makes sense.  The bottom line is that you shouldn’t expect to make money in less than two years.

There you have it: five basic principles to get you started on your new home search.  Be sure to re-visit my blog for more tips – and please do contact me if you want more help!  Call me any time.

RE/MAX Hallmark Realty Ltd Announces New Leslieville Office!

RE/MAX Hallmark Realty Ltd is expanding into the heart of Leslieville!  With the recent purchase of 785 Queen St East, Hallmark will be building upon our already significant market presence in one of Toronto’s most interesting and exciting neighbourhoods.  The new office, which is scheduled to open in May, 2012, will serve the growth of the company, Realtors already in the organization and the needs of our many clients in and around the area.

For those of you who have followed my own recent journey away from, and then back to, RE/MAX Hallmark, this will make sense: Hallmark just has so much to offer – both to me and to my clients.  The new office will give us a physical base in Leslieville from which to operate – just as we have had with Hallmark’s many other offices around the city (including Riverdale, Don Mills, Mt Pleasant, College St, etc).  Plus, it will draw more buyers and sellers to the brokerage, adding to the pool of opportunities for all involved.

All in all, this is just another great reason to work with RE/MAX Hallmark.  Call me if you have any questions or comments, and let’s get to work on your real estate goals!

 

Thank you for your support!

Wow!  It has been a busy couple of weeks since I announced my move back to RE/MAX Hallmark.  In that time, I have been absolutely inundated with excited and supportive calls and emails from my clients, colleagues, friends and family.  The message is overwhelming: great move!  Honestly, I thought that a few people would be at least a bit skeptical, but not one person has indicated any doubts (quite the contrary).  All the positive feedback has been great.  I want to thank all of you for your support.  As you know, I am very excited, and it’s really great to see that so many of you are, too!

The reaction at RE/MAX Hallmark has been fantastic, too.  From Broker/Owners Debra Bain and Ken Mclachlan right through the whole organization, it has been a warm ‘welcome home!’  It’s great to be back.  With seven locations around Toronto (plus two more in Cottage Country), RE/MAX Hallmark has a market presence all across the city, which allows me to better represent and serve my clients.  I couldn’t be happier!

I expect 2012 to be another busy year in the Toronto real estate market.  (I’ll blog more on that in the coming weeks.)  If you are planning to buy or sell, call me today and let’s start laying the groundwork.

Have a great holiday season!

I’m back at RE/MAX Hallmark Realty Ltd!

A few months ago, the team I was working with broke away from RE/MAX Hallmark Realty to become an independent Brokerage.  They are such great people, and it was an exciting time, so I happily accompanied them.  However, now that the dust has settled I have realized that I can much better represent my clients – both buyers and sellers – with the RE/MAX brand behind us.  Although there are some advantages to working with a highly localized boutique brokerage, I don’t feel that it’s the best way to represent a wide range of people in a city as large and diverse as Toronto.  That’s why I have decided to go ‘home’ to Hallmark!

The RE/MAX brand is world famous, but more importantly it is the king of the market in Toronto.  I’m really looking forward to re-connecting with many of my former colleagues, and to getting plugged back in to one of the biggest (and best!) real estate networks available to buyers and sellers – not just in Toronto, but Canada-wide and, when necessary, world wide.

This time around I’ll be returning to my roots as a solo agent – no more teams for me!  This will give me the independence to cultivate marketing strategies that are right for my sellers, while leaving me with the time and flexibility to better service buyers.  Having seen and experienced the trials and miscommunications of team selling, I’m very relieved to be getting back to dealing directly – and singly – with all of my clients.

If we have done business in the past, I’ll be getting in touch with you over the next while to further discuss the change, and to re-connect with you personally.  If we haven’t yet done business, please don’t hesitate to contact me any time.  I’m here to help!